By Emeritus Professor John Alexander Church

Journal articles

Wang J; Zhang X; Church JA; King M; Chen X, 2025, 'Near-Term Future Sea-Level Projections Supported by Extrapolation of Tide-Gauge Observations', Geophysical Research Letters, 52, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112940

Wang J; Zhang X; Church J; King M; Chen X, 2025, 'Near-term future sea-level projections supported by extrapolation of tide-gauge observations', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21523

Huang R; Zhang X; Church JA; Hu J, 2025, 'Asymmetric Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation and Associated Sea Level Over 1960–2018 in the Pacific Ocean', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 130, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021785

Slangen A; Palmer M; Camargo C; Church J; Edwards T; Hermans T; Hewitt H; Garner G; Gregory J; Kopp R; Malagon Santos V; van de Wal R, 2025, 'Sea-level projections in recent IPCC reports: how we got here, where we are and where we’re going ', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9008

Wang J; Church JA; Zhang X; Chen X, 2024, 'Improved Sea Level Reconstruction from 1900 to 2019', Journal of Climate, 37, pp. 6453 - 6474, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0410.1

Mu D; Church JA; King M; Ludwigsen CB; Xu T, 2024, 'Contrasting Discrepancy in the Sea Level Budget Between the North and South Atlantic Ocean Since 2016', Earth and Space Science, 11, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003133

McDougall TJ; Church JA; Zillman J, 2024, 'Angus McEwan 1937–2018', Historical Records of Australian Science, 36, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/hr24005

Von Schuckmann K; Minière A; Gues F; Cuesta-Valero FJ; Kirchengast G; Adusumilli S; Straneo F; Ablain M; Allan RP; Barker PM; Beltrami H; Blazquez A; Boyer T; Cheng L; Church J; Desbruyeres D; Dolman H; Domingues CM; García-García A; Giglio D; Gilson JE; Gorfer M; Haimberger L; Hakuba MZ; Hendricks S; Hosoda S; Johnson GC; Killick R; King B; Kolodziejczyk N; Korosov A; Krinner G; Kuusela M; Landerer FW; Langer M; Lavergne T; Lawrence I; Li Y; Lyman J; Marti F; Marzeion B; Mayer M; MacDougall AH; McDougall T; Monselesan DP; Nitzbon J; Otosaka I; Peng J; Purkey S; Roemmich D; Sato K; Sato K; Savita A; Schweiger A; Shepherd A; Seneviratne SI; Simons L; Slater DA; Slater T; Steiner AK; Suga T; Szekely T; Thiery W; Timmermans ML; Vanderkelen I; Wjiffels SE; Wu T; Zemp M, 2023, 'Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: where does the energy go?', Earth System Science Data, 15, pp. 1675 - 1709, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023

Lyu K; Zhang X; Church JA; Wu Q; Fiedler R; Dias FB, 2023, 'Roles of Surface Forcing in the Southern Ocean Temperature and Salinity Changes under Increasing CO2: Perspectives from Model Perturbation Experiments and a Theoretical Framework', Journal of Physical Oceanography, 53, pp. 19 - 36, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-22-0095.1

Slangen ABA; Palmer MD; Camargo CML; Church JA; Edwards TL; Hermans THJ; Hewitt HT; Garner GG; Gregory JM; Kopp RE; Santos VM; van de Wal RSW, 2023, 'The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond', Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, 1, http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cft.2022.8

Li Y; Church JA; McDougall TJ; Barker PM, 2022, 'Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes', Geophysical Research Letters, 49, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101079

van de Wal RSW; Nicholls RJ; Behar D; McInnes K; Stammer D; Lowe JA; Church JA; DeConto R; Fettweis X; Goelzer H; Haasnoot M; Haigh ID; Hinkel J; Horton BP; James TS; Jenkins A; LeCozannet G; Levermann A; Lipscomb WH; Marzeion B; Pattyn F; Payne AJ; Pfeffer WT; Price SF; Seroussi H; Sun S; Veatch W; White K, 2022, 'A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners', Earth S Future, 10, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751

Sohail T; Zika JD; Irving DB; Church JA, 2022, 'Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970', Nature, 602, pp. 617 - 622, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04370-w

Savita A; Domingues CM; Boyer T; Gouretski V; Ishii M; Johnson GC; Lyman JM; Willis JK; Marsland SJ; Hobbs W; Church JA; Monselesan DP; Dobrohotoff P; Cowley R; Wijffels SE, 2022, 'Quantifying Spread in Spatiotemporal Changes of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Estimates: An Internationally Coordinated Comparison', Journal of Climate, 35, pp. 851 - 875, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0603.1

Wang J; Church JA; Zhang X; Chen X, 2021, 'Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations', Nature Communications, 12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6

Wang J; Church JA; Zhang X; Gregory JM; Zanna L; Chen X, 2021, 'Evaluation of the Local Sea-Level Budget at Tide Gauges Since 1958', Geophysical Research Letters, 48, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094502

Lyu K; Zhang X; Church JA, 2021, 'Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record', Nature Climate Change, 11, pp. 834 - 839, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01151-1

Jin Y; Zhang X; Church JA; Bao X, 2021, 'Projected sea level changes in the marginal seas near China based on dynamical downscaling', Journal of Climate, 34, pp. 7037 - 7055, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0796.1

Wu Q; Zhang X; Church JA; Hu J; Gregory JM, 2021, 'Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory', Climate Dynamics, 57, pp. 635 - 656, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05727-7

Sohail T; Irving DB; Zika JD; Holmes RM; Church JA, 2021, 'Fifty Year Trends in Global Ocean Heat Content Traced to Surface Heat Fluxes in the Sub-Polar Ocean', Geophysical Research Letters, 48, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091439

Irving D; Hobbs W; Church J; Zika J, 2021, 'A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble', Journal of Climate, 34, pp. 3157 - 3170, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0281.1

Sohail T; Irving DB; Zika JD; Holmes RM; Church JA, 2020, 'Long-term global ocean heat content change driven by sub-polar surface heat fluxes', , http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504695.1

Richter K; Meyssignac B; Slangen ABA; Melet A; Church JA; Fettweis X; Marzeion B; Agosta C; Ligtenberg SRM; Spada G; Palmer MD; Roberts CD; Champollion N, 2020, 'Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change', Environmental Research Letters, 15, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e

Todd A; Zanna L; Couldrey M; Gregory J; Wu Q; Church JA; Farneti R; Navarro-Labastida R; Lyu K; Saenko O; Yang D; Zhang X, 2020, 'Ocean-Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change', Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002027

Lyu K; Zhang X; Church JA, 2020, 'Regional Dynamic Sea Level Simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Mean Biases, Future Projections, and Their Linkages', Journal of Climate, 33, pp. 6377 - 6398, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1029.1

Lyu K; Zhang X; Church JA; Wu Q, 2020, 'Processes responsible for the southern hemisphere ocean heat uptake and redistribution under anthropogenic warming', Journal of Climate, 33, pp. 3787 - 3807, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0478.1

Todd A; Zanna L; Couldrey M; Gregory JM; Wu Q; Church JA; Farneti R; Navarro-Labastida R; Lyu K; Saenko OA; Yang D; Zhang X, 2020, 'Ocean-only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change.', , http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10501557.1

Gregory JM; Griffies SM; Hughes CW; Lowe JA; Church JA; Fukimori I; Gomez N; Kopp RE; Landerer F; Cozannet GL; Ponte RM; Stammer D; Tamisiea ME; van de Wal RSW, 2019, 'Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global', Surveys in Geophysics, 40, pp. 1251 - 1289, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z

Gregory JM; Griffies SM; Hughes CW; Lowe JA; Church JA; Fukumori I; Gomez N; Kopp RE; Landerer F; Cozannet GL; Ponte RM; Stammer D; Tamisiea ME; van de Wal RSW, 2019, 'Correction to: Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global (Surveys in Geophysics, (2019), 40, 6, (1251-1289), 10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z)', Surveys in Geophysics, 40, pp. 1291 - 1292, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09555-7

Stammer D; van de Wal RSW; Nicholls RJ; Church JA; Le Cozannet G; Lowe JA; Horton BP; White K; Behar D; Hinkel J, 2019, 'Framework for High-End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications', Earth S Future, 7, pp. 923 - 938, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001163

Irving DB; Wijffels S; Church JA, 2019, 'Anthropogenic Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and the Uptake, Transport, and Storage of Excess Heat in the Climate System', Geophysical Research Letters, 46, pp. 4894 - 4903, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082015

Hinkel J; Church JA; Gregory JM; Lambert E; Le Cozannet G; Lowe J; McInnes KL; Nicholls RJ; van der Pol TD; van de Wal R, 2019, 'Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective', Earth S Future, 7, pp. 320 - 337, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001071

Palmer MD; Durack P; Chidichimo MP; Church J; Cravatte SE; Hill KL; Johannessen J; Karstensen J; Lee T; Legler D; Mazloff M; Oka E; Purkey S; Rabe B; Sallée JB; Sloyan BM; Speich S; von Schuckmann K; Willis J; Wijffels SE, 2019, 'Adequacy of the ocean observation system for quantifying regional heat and freshwater storage and change', Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00416

Wu Q; Zhang X; Church JA; Hu J, 2019, 'ENSO-Related global ocean heat content variations', Journal of Climate, 32, pp. 45 - 68, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0861.1

Meyssignac B; Boyer T; Zhao Z; Hakuba MZ; Landerer FW; Stammer D; Köhl A; Kato S; L'Ecuyer T; Ablain M; Abraham JP; Blazquez A; Cazenave A; Church JA; Cowley R; Cheng L; Domingues C; Giglio D; Gouretski V; Ishii M; Johnson GC; Killick RE; Legler D; Llovel W; Lyman J; Palmer MD; Piotrowicz S; Purkey S; Roemmich D; Roca R; Savita A; Schuckmann KV; Speich S; Stephens G; Wang GG; Wijffels SE; Zilberman N, 2019, 'Measuring global ocean heat content to estimate the earth energy imbalance', Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432

Cazenave A; Meyssignac B; Ablain M; Balmaseda M; Bamber J; Barletta V; Beckley B; Benveniste J; Berthier E; Blazquez A; Boyer T; Caceres D; Chambers D; Champollion N; Chao B; Chen J; Cheng L; Church JA; Chuter S; Cogley JG; Dangendorf S; Desbruyères D; Döll P; Domingues C; Falk U; Famiglietti J; Fenoglio-Marc L; Forsberg R; Galassi G; Gardner A; Groh A; Hamlington B; Hogg A; Horwath M; Humphrey V; Husson L; Ishii M; Jaeggi A; Jevrejeva S; Johnson G; Kolodziejczyk N; Kusche J; Lambeck K; Landerer F; Leclercq P; Legresy B; Leuliette E; Llovel W; Longuevergne L; Loomis BD; Luthcke SB; Marcos M; Marzeion B; Merchant C; Merrifield M; Milne G; Mitchum G; Mohajerani Y; Monier M; Monselesan D; Nerem S; Palanisamy H; Paul F; Perez B; Piecuch CG; Ponte RM; Purkey SG; Reager JT; Rietbroek R; Rignot E; Riva R; Roemmich DH; Sørensen LS; Sasgen I; Schrama EJO; Seneviratne SI; Shum CK; Spada G; Stammer D; van de Wal R; Velicogna I; Schuckmann KV; Wada Y; Wang Y; Watson C; Wiese D; Wijffels S; Westaway R; Woppelmann G; Wouters B, 2018, 'Global sea-level budget 1993-present', Earth System Science Data, 10, pp. 1551 - 1590, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018

Royston S; Watson CS; Legrésy B; King MA; Church JA; Bos MS, 2018, 'Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 123, pp. 1978 - 1993, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013655

Slangen ABA; Meyssignac B; Agosta C; Champollion N; Church JA; Fettweis X; Ligtenberg SRM; Marzeion B; Melet A; Palmer MD; Richter K; Roberts CD; Spada G, 2017, 'Evaluating model simulations of twentieth-century sea level rise. Part I: Global mean sea level change', Journal of Climate, 30, pp. 8539 - 8563, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0110.1

Meyssignac B; Slangen ABA; Melet A; Church JA; Fettweis X; Marzeion B; Agosta C; Ligtenberg SRM; Spada G; Richter K; Palmer MD; Roberts CD; Champollion N, 2017, 'Evaluating model simulations of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Part II: Regional sea-level changes', Journal of Climate, 30, pp. 8565 - 8593, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0112.1

Carson M; Köhl A; Stammer D; Meyssignac B; Church J; Schröter J; Wenzel M; Hamlington B, 2017, 'Regional Sea Level Variability and Trends, 1960–2007: A Comparison of Sea Level Reconstructions and Ocean Syntheses', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 122, pp. 9068 - 9091, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012992

Nerem RS; Cazenave A; Church J, 2017, 'Sea-level rise: No chaos in the satellite-data record', Nature, 549, pp. 334, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/549334d

Zhang X; Church JA; Monselesan D; McInnes KL, 2017, 'Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century', Geophysical Research Letters, 44, pp. 8481 - 8491, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074176

Lyu K; Zhang X; Church JA; Hu J; Yu JY, 2017, 'Distinguishing the Quasi-decadal and multidecadal sea level and climate variations in the pacific: Implications for the ENSO-like low-frequency variability', Journal of Climate, 30, pp. 5097 - 5117, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0004.1

Chen X; Zhang X; Church JA; Watson CS; King MA; Monselesan D; Legresy B; Harig C, 2017, 'The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993-2014', Nature Climate Change, 7, pp. 492 - 495, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325

Wu Q; Zhang X; Church JA; Hu J, 2017, 'Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 122, pp. 1862 - 1881, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012345

Lyu K; Zhang X; Church JA; Hu J, 2016, 'Evaluation of the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature and sea level in the Pacific in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models', International Journal of Climatology, 36, pp. 3723 - 3740, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4587

Slangen ABA; Church JA; Agosta C; Fettweis X; Marzeion B; Richter K, 2016, 'Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970', Nature Climate Change, 6, pp. 701 - 705, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991

Slangen ABA; Church JA; Agosta C; Fettweis X; Marzeion B; Richter K, 2016, 'Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 (vol 11, pg 1, 2016)', NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 6, https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000378608900027&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=891bb5ab6ba270e68a29b250adbe88d1

Herraiz-Borreguero L; Church JA; Allison I; Peña-Molino B; Coleman R; Tomczak M; Craven M, 2016, 'Basal melt, seasonal water mass transformation, ocean current variability, and deep convection processes along the Amery Ice Shelf calving front, East Antarctica', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 121, pp. 4946 - 4965, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011858

Albert S; Leon JX; Grinham AR; Church JA; Gibbes BR; Woodroffe CD, 2016, 'Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands', Environmental Research Letters, 11, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011

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