Select Publications
Journal articles
, 1974, 'A generalized approach to exposed-to-risk theory', Actuarial Research Clearing House
, 1974, 'Determination of a basis for surrender and paid-up policy values', Transaction of The Institute of Actuaries of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 34 - 76
, 1974, 'Disability income insurance reserves', Bulletin of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 402 - 405
, 1974, 'Experience Rating with Credibility Adjustment of the Manual Premium', ASTIN Bulletin, 7, pp. 323 - 336
, 1974, 'Hardy's formula via King's formula', Actuarial Research Clearing House
, 1974, 'Symmetry between components of an analysis of surplus', Transactions of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia and New Zealand
, 1973, 'Optimising the term of an investigation into decremental rates', Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 99, pp. 69 - 83
, 1972, 'Comments on Aitken's theorem for polynomial interpolation', Bulletin of the institute of Actuaries of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 161 - 166
, 1972, 'On calculation of the moments of the value of a life assurance liability', Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 98, pp. 157 - 164, http://www.jstor.org/stable/41140242
, 1971, 'Moments in markovian systems with lumped states', Journal of Applied Probability, 8, pp. 599 - 605, http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3212182
, 1971, 'Sickness: a stochastic process', Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 97, pp. 69 - 83, http://www.jstor.org/stable/41140172
, 1969, 'Accuracy of the census formula', Bulletin of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia and New Zealand, pp. 233 - 238
Conference Papers
, 2018, 'How to proxy the unmodellable: Analysing granular insurance claims in the presence of unobservable or complex drivers', Sydney, Australia, presented at Australian Actuaries Institute General Insurance Seminar 2018, Sydney, Australia, 12 November 2018 - 13 November 2018, http://dx.doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/26969
, 2016, 'On the Impact, Detection and Treatment of Outliers in Robust Loss Reserving', in Proceedings of the Actuaries Institute 2016 General Insurance Seminar, 13-15 November 2016 (Melbourne, Australia), Melbourne, presented at General Insurance Seminar, Melbourne, 13 November 2016 - 15 November 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/26149
, 2004, 'Loss reserving with GLMs: a case study', pp. 327 - 392, presented at Casualty Actuarial Society 2004 Discussion Paper Program, -
, 1999, 'Hierarchical credibility and industry risk relativities', presented at Institute of Actuaries of Australia General Insurance Seminar 12, - , http://dx.doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/25711
, 1995, 'Models of the World for the next 50 years', Newcastle, Australia, presented at 1995 ANZAAS Congress, Newcastle, Australia, -
, 1990, 'The rate of return for discounting non-life insurance loss reserves', pp. 295 - 348, presented at 1st International AFIR Colloquium, -
, 1989, 'Application of options pricing to general insurance', Cairns, presented at Institute of Actuaries of Australia Biennial Convention, Cairns, -
, 1986, 'Regression models in claims analysis I: theory', in Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society, Crystal City, Virginia (US), pp. 354 - 383, presented at Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar of the Casualty Actuarial Society and American Academy of Actuaries, Crystal City, Virginia (US), 29 September 1986 - 30 September 1986
, 1980, 'A reduced Reid method of estimation of outstanding claims', Institute of Actuaries of Australia, presented at 2nd General Insurance Seminar, -
, 1980, 'No-claim discount systems and their determination', Institute of Actuaries of Australia, Broadbeach, presented at 2nd General Insurance Seminar, Broadbeach, -
Reports
, 2005, The analysis and estimation of loss & ALAE variability: a summary report, Casualty Actuarial Society Forum
, 1979, Statistical testing of a non-life insurance model, Instituut voor Actuariele Wetenschappen, Katholieke Universiteit te Leuven, Belguim
Working Papers
, 2016, Evolutionary Hierarchical Credibility, Cambridge University Press (CUP), http://dx.doi.org10.1017/asb.2017.31
, 2016, Comment on the paper “The impact of covariates on a bonus–malus system: an application of Taylor’s model” by Lemaire, Park & Wang, European Actuarial Journal, http://dx.doi.org10.1007/s13385-016-0126-y
, 2015, An empirical investigation of the value of finalisation count information to loss reserving, Elsevier, http://dx.doi.org10.2139/ssrn.2613255, http://ssrn.com/abstract=2613255
, 2015, Correlations between Insurance Lines of Business: An Illusion or a Real Phenomenon? Some Methodological Considerations, 2015ACTL11, http://dx.doi.org10.2139/ssrn.2597405, http://ssrn.com/abstract=2597405
, 2009, A hierarchical Kalman filter, 180, http://dx.doi.org
, 1997, Technical aspects of domestic lines pricing, 45, http://dx.doi.org, http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/806904/45.pdf
, 1996, Risk, capital and profit in insurance, Parkville, Victoria, 39, http://dx.doi.org
, 1981, A comparison of methods of estimation of third party motor outstanding claims, 23, http://dx.doi.org
Media
, 2016, Construction of detailed correlation structures across GI business segments, http://dx.doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/26148
, 2015, Are correlations real or imagined?, The Institute of Actuaries of Australia, http://dx.doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/25689
Preprints
, 2021, Stochastic loss reserving with mixture density neural networks, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2108.07924
, 2020, SynthETIC: an individual insurance claim simulator with feature control, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.06.004
, 2020, Modelling and understanding count processes through a Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process framework, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2003.13888
, A Multivariate Evolutionary Generalised Linear Model Framework with Adaptive Estimation for Claims Reserving, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3413016
, A Multivariate Micro-Level Insurance Counts Model With a Cox Process Approach, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3354434
, Common Shock Models for Claim Arrays, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2881058
, Inference of Counts Using Markov-Modulated Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3354342
, On Unbalanced Data and Common Shock Models in Stochastic Loss Reserving, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3303255
, Stochastic Loss Reserving with Dependence: A Flexible Multivariate Tweedie Approach, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2753540
Other
, 2014, Research into claim dependencies: an industry and academic collaboration, Actuaries Institute, http://www.actuaries.digital/2014/08/15/research-into-claim-dependencies-an-industry-and-academic-collaboration/